The economy is key to President Trump's reelection hopes.  A real recession could derail a second term.  So naturally the national media is serving up a steady diet of "the economy is in trouble now."

So what's the truth?  Is the threat of recession real?  Our businessman, blogger consultant friend Tim Bryce addresses the question in his recent column.

"I have been hearing about an impending recession which my Democrat friends insist will happen either later this year or in 2020. The media reports likewise and I suspect these prognosticators will become louder as we get closer to the 2020 election. On the other hand, Republicans are at a loss as to what all the hubbub is all about, as our economy is still chugging along just fine. One cannot help but wonder if this is real or politically motivated."

Bryce reminds us that the word "recession" comes with a specific definition.

“The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as ‘a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.’ A recession is also said to be when businesses cease to expand, the GDP diminishes for two consecutive quarters, the rate of unemployment rises, and housing prices decline.”

Tim Bryce offers a good take on the politicization of economic forecasting! Check it out!